- Cooper Kupp is coming off his third NFL season, a season where he absolutely crushed it. The Rams young WR finished as the WR4 in both PPR and Standard scoring leagues, and set career highs in yards, targets, receptions, and touchdowns. In addition to putting up career highs across the board, Kupp played his first full NFL season in 2019. In his previous two seasons he played 15 games (2017) and only 8 games (2018), while still putting impressive numbers in a limited time. His 2017 rookie season, he had 62 receptions for 869 yards and 5 touchdowns, an impressive rookie campaign. Then followed it up with 40 receptions for 566 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2018, while only playing half a season. Considering the numbers he put up in 2018 prior to his injury, he would’ve been on pace for somewhere around 80+ receptions, 1,100+ yards, and 10+ touchdowns if he kept the momentum from his first half of the season. Aside from just looking at Kupp’s stats year-to-year, the Rams offense as a whole looked drastically different from 2018 to 2019. If we rewind back to 2018 the Los Angeles Rams were 2nd in the NFL in Yds/G (421.1) and Pts/G (32.9) only trailing the Kansas City Chiefs. In 2019 the Rams were 7th in Yds/G (374.9) and 11th in Pts/G (24.6) (ESPN). Despite the drop in offensive efficiency, Kupp still managed to put up the career season he did. The point I’m trying to make is, I’m confused why after a 2018 breakout season (only 8 GP) and a 2019 season where he was WR4, his ADP (average draft position) is 14.0 among WR and his ECR (expert consensus ranking) is WR14 (FantasyPros).
- Above are the Top-20 WR from 2019 (PPR): I’ve input this table to show some areas of opportunity for Kupp and possible areas of regression to the mean in 2020. I’ve highlighted both number of targets and numbers of touchdowns. In the Top-20 WR from a year ago, 10 WR had more targets than Kupp, and 5 WR had 20+ more targets. The reason I am highlighting targets is based on the fact that I expect there to even more targets coming Kupp’s way in 2020, and here is why. Brandin Cooks, who had a down year last season still played 14 games and was given 72 targets in the Rams offense, with those 72 targets he had 42 receptions for 583 receiving yards. Cooks is no longer a Ram, and will be suiting up for Houston come the fall. I expect those 72 targets to be distributed between Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Josh Reynolds/Van Jefferson. Now I’m not saying Kupp is the only one benefiting from Cooks departure, but with his big play ability, even 10-15 more targets could make a significant difference. On the contrary, I highlighted both Kupp and Kenny Golladay’s touchdown numbers because they were the only 2 in the Top-20 to have 10+ touchdowns on the season. Touchdowns typically are one of the more flooky stats, and typically after a high or low touchdown year, regression to the mean follows. Kupp’s counterpart Robert Woods only caught 2 touchdowns in 2019 while having 90 receptions and 1,134 yards. Considering that stat, in 2020 given similar opportunity, you’d expect that number to rise for Woods. To wrap up this point, I expect Kupp to get more targets in 2020, providing him more opportunity, while also expecting potentially slight regression in the touchdown department. Woods should get his touchdowns back to normal, and I would expect a third receiver (Reynolds or Jefferson) to make an impact too. Considering all of this, I still don’t get why is Kupp is being drafted as WR14 (ADP) and ranked WR14 (ECR).
- Below are the Top-20 WR heading into 2020: Rankings are based on ECR (expert consensus rankings) and ADP (average draft position) at WR (FantasyPros).
|WR1||Michael Thomas (NO)||1.0|
|WR2||Devante Adams (GB)||3.0|
|WR3||Julio Jones (ATL)||5.0|
|WR4||DeAndre Hopkins (ARI)||2.0|
|WR5||Tyreek Hill (KC)||4.0|
|WR6||Chris Godwin (TB)||6.0|
|WR7||Allen Robinson (CHI)||13.0|
|WR8||Mike Evans (TB)||7.0|
|WR9||Kenny Golladay (DET)||8.0|
|WR10||D.J. Moore (CAR)||9.0|
|WR11||Juju Smith-Schuster (PIT)||12.0|
|WR12||Amari Cooper (DAL)||10.0|
|WR13||Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE)||11.0|
|WR14||Cooper Kupp (LAR)||14.0|
|WR15||Adam Thielen (MIN)||15.0|
|WR16||Keenan Allen (LAC)||17.0|
|WR17||Robert Woods (LAR)||21.0|
|WR18||Calvin Ridley (ATL)||19.0|
|WR19||Courtland Sutton (DEN)||18.0|
|WR20||A.J. Brown (TEN)||16.0|
- Extra Point: Kupp is my WR7 heading into 2020, and based on his past production, what I expect from the Rams offense this season, and the role he has carved out over the past 3 seasons. I’m taking Kupp with confidence and I’m expecting big production for the second straight year. You’ll see people ranking him outside the Top-15, you’ll see people ranking him outside the Top-20 at WR…don’t fall for it. Cooper Kupp’s 2020 season could be one of his best yet.
- Who I’m taking ahead of Cooper Kupp: Michael Thomas (WR1), Davante Adams (WR2), DeAndre Hopkins (WR3), Julio Jones (WR4), Tyreek Hill (WR5), Chris Godwin (WR6)